TriumphFX – Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 10, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 10.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed bearish around the previous horizontal support at 0.7905 and the bearish channel resistance area. Price continues to downtrend within a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that price may attempt a swing lower. The AUDUSD recently struggled to reach the bearish channel support area though, signalling that selling momentum may be weakening and that price could move above the channel resistance area. Shorting opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7900 and 0.7945, around the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.7860 and the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. There is a Reserve Bank of Australia Speech at 2330 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 10.08.2017

The EURGBP found support around the horizontal support at 0.9010 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. The EURGBP has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9010-0.9080. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the EURGBP may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8990 and 0.8975.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

A UK Manufacturing Production figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 10.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been moving off the triangular consolidation support and resistance areas. The EURUSD is consolidating within a bearish triangular pattern and also within a horizontal channel at 1.1710-1.1765. Trading opportunities may exist around either consolidation support and resistance areas and if price moves out of either consolidation (break-out trades). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the EURUSD could break to the downside and move lower.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 10.08.2017

Price has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average and the previous horizontal support at 1.3015 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is now ranging between the horizontal level at 1.3015 and the recent swing low at 1.2955. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the GBPUSD may move to the downside. Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union.  The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

A UK Manufacturing Production figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 10.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD reversed bearish around the horizontal resistance at 0.7365 and the longer-term moving average. Price continues to downtrend and is currently attempting a move below the bearish channel support area. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel support area (as resistance), around the horizontal levels at 0.7310 and 0.7365, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 10.08.2017

The USDCAD continues to find support around the bullish channel support area and is forming a swing higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to uptrend within the bullish channel. The bullish moving averages are tightening, signalling that buying momentum may be weakening. Opportunities to go long could exist around the channel support area, around the horizontal level at 1.2695 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. If the USDCAD moves below the moving averages, price may attempt a bearish move lower.

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 10.08.2017

Price has been bearish and has formed a swing lower. The USDCHF has moved below a number of key support areas and the moving averages have crossed bearish, all signalling that price could start down-trending. Price is currently retracing. Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9710 and 0.9765. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.9615.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The CHF has seen added strength with the escalating contention between the US and North Korea.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 10.08.2017

The USDJPY moved below the recent range support area but price continues to look indecisive and trend momentum. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction. The USDJPY has formed a bearish channel, suggesting that price may downtrend. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. The USDJPY may find support around the channel support area.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The JPY has seen added strength with the escalating contention between the US and North Korea.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 10.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has moved above the bearish channel resistance area and has since rallied much higher. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening and price has moved above a number of key resistance areas, all suggesting that GOLD could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1272.95 and 1269.55, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous bearish channel resistance area.