The euro opened with a huge gap after the weekend and was trading in the local consolidation the whole day. Unfortunately, on Monday volume was quite small, so we are unable to allocate any new volumetric level or zone. Our previous level of support 1.0686 – 1.0700 is not actual anymore, because the price is too far away from it, so we don’t have any level that can be used for the trading the euro.
Given all these facts, it’s better to stay out of the market and wait for the appearance of volume, that will allow us to consider new deals.
The results of the first round of presidential elections in France did not significantly affect the price of the British pound sterling, which continues trading in the consolidation between the support level 1.2745 – 1.2773 and the local resistance 1.2852. It should be noted that large volume is concentrated in this range, which makes it possible to assume about the set of positions by large players. Thus, after the price comes out of this consolidation, the local trend for the pound is likely to begin.
Given the strong volumetric growth of the price last week, it is worth giving an advantage to purchases. Long positions should be opened after the breakdown of the upper limit of the consolidation on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed under the breakout bar. The target is 1.3000. We can also search for an entry point for purchases in case of a test of the support level and a strong rebound of the price up. In this case, a stop loss should be placed below the level of 1.2745.
Sales should be considered only if the price on very (!) large volume breaks through the support and fixes below it. In the meantime, purchases are in priority.
The yen also opened with a huge gap which allowed it to breakout the resistance level. Now the way up is clear, but unfortunately we don’t have a good place for a stop loss, because on Monday volume was small and the previous resistance is not relevant.
Overall long positions are in priority, but we don’t have a good point for enter, that’s why we need to wait for the creation of the new support and buy USD/JPY after it. Until that, it’s better to stay out of the market.
Due to the fall of the oil price, USD/CAD continues falling down, but this move was and is on quite small volume. It makes impossible to highlight any volumetric levels or zones, that can be used for the trading. So now the best decision for the Canadian dollar is to stay out of the market.
The situation for the Australian dollar is also complicated: the price is the global consolidation, volume is too small, so we can’t point out any new volumetric levels that can be used as good places for stop losses.
My advice for AUD/USD for today – be out of the market.
Gold has broken down its level of support 1276.80 – 1279.00 after the opening with the gap after the weekend. This level plays the role of the technical resistance now, because the price opened and started falling from it.
Also we need to highlight that the accumulation of volume at the top of the chart also pushes the price down, so that short positions are in priority. We can enter the market after the start of the price fall on large volume, which confirms our guess that sellers are dominating the market now. A stop loss should be set a bit above the level 1279.00. A potential of the deal is around 150 pips.
The sentiment: the pound deal is confirmed, for the euro and the Canadian dollar long positions are also in priority. For the yen and gold, the sentiment has not reacted on changes of prices yet, so we should be careful.
The bottom line: after the first round of the French presidential election the situation on the market is complicated, only the pound has more or less good scenario for trading.